LET THE GAMES BEGIN
WNBA PLAYOFF PREVIEW 2024
With attention for women’s basketball is at an all-time, it is not crazy to say that this is the most important playoffs in WNBA history. All eyes will be on the W when the postseason tips off today, and WE are here to preview every round, and provide predictions that will surely come back to haunt us.
This season has been filled with surprises, such as the shockingly slow start for the two-time champion Aces, who seem to be heating up at the right time, and the seemingly overachieving Connecticut Sun.
Enough setting the table. Let’s get into predictions.
NEW YORK LIBERTY (32-8, #1 seed) vs ATLANTA DREAM (15-25, #8 seed)
Don’t be fooled by the results of the season finale, in which Atlanta toppled mighty New York 78-67, this series is not likely to be competitive. Simply put, the Liberty just produced one of the best regular seasons in WNBA history, while the Dream snuck into the playoffs despite finishing ten games under .500.
Not only did the Dream make the playoffs on the final day, but 2012 MVP Tina Charles further solidified her place in league history, breaking records for both career rebounds and double-doubles. Breaking these records in her native New York was just the icing on the cake for the 35-year old, as she had about 40 friends and family in attendance for the feat.
That being said, the Liberty are going to steamroll the Dream. Their collection of talent, led by the three-headed monster of Stewie, Sabrina and JJ is going to overwhelm Atlanta, and very likely will happen in a two-game sweep. There is a reason they are 25:1 favorites. Losing this series would be an all-time disappointment.
PREDICTION: LIBERTY IN 2
MINNESOTA LYNX (30-10, #2 seed) vs PHOENIX MERCURY (19-21, #7 seed)
This is a matchup between one of the best on-court stories in the league vs one of the most important off-court storylines of the season. The Lynx surprised everyone this season, taking the league by storm to the tune of a sublime 30-10 record. Going into the season Minnesota was ranked 9th by ESPN, 8th by CBS and 6th by the WNBA’s own reporters. Just goes to show why prediction pieces (such as the one you’re reading now) should be taken with a grain of salt.
The Lynx have been one of the most consistent teams all season long, winning the Commissioner’s Cup in June by beating the aforementioned Liberty. The team is led by Olympic gold-medalist Napheesa Collier, who finished this season second in MVP-voting. If this were a normal season where A’ja Wilson doesn’t set all-time scoring records, Collier would’ve had a real shot at winning the award.
On the other side of the court is Phoenix, who is getting a lot of attention because this is the likely swan-song for WNBA GOAT Diana Taurasi. Taurasi, who locked up her record fifth Olympic gold medal alongside Collier this summer has deservedly been getting her flowers as her career comes to an end. Unfortunately, the team’s performance will likely prevent Taurasi from walking off with much success. Since the Olympic Break, the Mercury have gone 6-9, which is not a record of a championship contender.
If the Lynx are going to compete for the title, as they should fully expect to, Collier is going to need big performances from her supporting cast of Kayla McBride and Alanna Smith. However, this first round matchup isn’t for a championship, and Collier alone should be enough to overcome the Mercury.
No need to overthink this one. One of these teams is elite. The other is mediocre. Elite talent wins out in the playoffs.
PREDICTION: LYNX IN 2
CONNECTICUT SUN (28-12, #3 seed) vs INDIANA FEVER (20-20, #6 seed)
This is the first of two actually compelling first round matchups. Not to take anything away from the other series, as they both have interesting storylines, Sun vs. Fever has the best chance of actually being a competitive series.
Don’t let the records fool you. Although the Sun are rightfully favored, Indiana has taken the league by storm over since the Olympic Break, going 10-4 down the stretch, good for a 71% winning percentage that is actually better than Connecticut’s season-long mark of 70%.
Much was made of USA Basketball’s decision to leave Caitlin Clark off the Olympic roster, but the Fever are likely not in this position if she makes the team. But after a first-half of the season that attracted so much scrutiny of the likely Rookie of the Year winner, it seems she just needed a little break in order to recovery from what had been a grueling schedule.
When the break started, Clark herself said “I feel like I've been nonstop go since, like, probably September of last year." And it has proven to be huge for her and the Fever as a whole. Clark broke the single-season assists record AS A ROOKIE, while also averaging nearly 20 points per game. Yes, the turnovers are still high, but she has been everything everyone hoped and more. Meanwhile the rest of the team has provided her plenty of support. Aliyah Boston is top-ten in both rebounds and blocks per game, while Kelsey Mitchell is shooting over 40% from behind the arc.
Another enticing storyline to watch for in this matchup is the continuation of the Nalyssa Smith and Dijonai Carrington on-court love story. For anyone that doesn’t know, Smith and Carrington met while playing their college ball for the Baylor Bears. Carrington was drafted to the league in 2021 and Smith followed in 2022. The unofficial timeline has them dating throughout college and into the early parts of their careers with a breakup sometime in 2023.
However, after a semi-viral moment where Smith effortlessly picks Carrington up off the floor (in a way that feels like it was written for a sapphic teen TV couple) after a harsh foul the couple seem to have reconnected. Even though they post some wholesome content that is a peak behind the curtain of their relationship, I still haven’t had my fill and watch particularly closely every time the two face-off on court like it’s the gay sequel to Love & Basketball.
The really interesting thing about these first-round matchups is that the hometeam has to win two-games in a row, or risk going on the road for a do-or-die Game 3. Indiana has the biggest home-court advantage in the WNBA, so if they win either game in Connecticut, there is a great chance they can pull out the victory here.
My money is on Indiana to pull off the upset. The team we have seen in the second half is the team we are getting now. And Clark has proven she can step up to meet the biggest moments.
PREDICTION: FEVER IN 3
LAS VEGAS ACES (27-13, #4 seed) vs SEATTLE STORM (25-15, #5 seed)
Remember when I said the previous matchup has the best chance of producing an upset? That doesn’t mean its the most exciting matchup of the first-round, as I am beyond pumped for what could prove to be a clash of titans.
What can be said about this matchup that hasn’t already been said? The Aces are going for a three-peat to cap off what has been an up-and-down regular season led by A’ja Wilson, who broke the single season scoring record, becoming the first player to top 1,000 points in a season. The Storm came into the season with sky-high expectations, having remade their team in the offseason by acquiring former MVP Nneka Ogwumike and six-time All Star Skylar Diggins-Smith as running mates for Jewell Lloyd.
The Aces finished the regular season matchup against these teams with a 3-1 edge, allowing them to edge out Seattle for home-court advantage in this series.
The last time the Aces lost in the playoffs, it was at the hands of the Storm, getting swept in the 2020 WNBA Finals. That Storm team featured Breanna Stewart, but this should provide some added motivation for Las Vegas.
Both of these teams are filled to the brim with starpower. And in a matchup like this, I am taking the star that shines brightest. A’ja Wilson just produced what is likely the greatest regular season. I am going to bet on her to step it up even further in the playoffs. Add in the home court advantage, and I predict the Aces to come out of both games in Sin City with hard-fought victories.
PREDICTION: ACES IN 2